Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Why I'm short equity right now...

Tomorrow we'll see if Bernanke has any balls.
If he admits that the 75bps emergency cut was too extreme, given that the MLK market volatility resulted in a big part from SocGen's seppuku as they surrendered to losses in a way only the French could (by immediately liquidating all their massive "fraudulent" positions and flooding the market instead of doing it gradually like any normal trading house would), he will cut rates 25bps. Of course this is still 100bps for the month, which sets us up nicely for stagflation in the near future, and 50bps more than the market originally estimated for January.
Nevertheless, even after every last financier, from BSD to Broker, had their chance to laugh at SocGen's Krevieling stupidity the market is still demanding a 50bps cut. Thus if Helicopter Ben continues playing limbo to the market's benchmark nothing will change (maybe a 2-3% intraday spike at most), but if he shows some backbone and cuts 25 the markets will tumble.
That's why I'm short SPH8 with an ATM straddle to hedge the vol (and compound profit) . Tomorrow should be fun.

Update: So ball less Bernanke cuts 50bps. Like I said - short intraday spike to unwind the call from the straddle and keep the put for free. All in all, nothing lost (except the credibility of the Fed).

Update 2: So even a fiddy ain't enough for the markets, as SPX finished down a percent. Good news for me though - I sold all three parts (call, put, future) in the money before market close. This turned out to be a pretty great trade, after all.

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