Friday, May 22, 2009

Welcome to the bandwagon, Bill.

Bil Gross believes that the US will lose its AAA rating within 3-4 years, something I said when the details of TARP first emerged. Of course the credit rating agencies will be a bit scared to eradicate the concept of "risk free" as we know it, but like Mr. PIMCO said - the downgrade will be priced in regardless of what the ratings are on paper.
Jay-Z and Giselle were too quick to switch to Euros in 2007 (unless they cashed out between April and July of 2008), but now might be a good time to consider what currency, if any, you want to hold in your bank account. Barrels of oil and gold bars might not fit in a wallet, but they won't evaporate either.
Note: While I think Oil's run-up is fully merited, I would take some profit now and leave it on the sidelines until an inevitable dip that leads to another buying opportunity. The curve is still contango, but a lot less steep.
clipped from ftalphaville.ft.com

Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the US was “going the way of the UK” and will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating - a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure, reports Reuters. The US will face a downgrade in “at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognise the problems before the rating services — just like it did today,” said Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pimco and manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund, which has $154bn in assets.

clipped from www.usnews.com
http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/3431/FE_PR_080204gross.jpg

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Vive La France?

I love vacations, and if I can stimulate the private aviation, lodging and retail industry while enjoying my just reward then I'm all for it. What I'm not for is the government getting its nose even deeper into the pockets and personnel policies of small (or big) business.

Employees and employers have the right to agree on a contract that makes the most sense to those two parties.

Many employees prefer a higher income to vacation days. Even a kid who failed arithmetic (at least in a European school) can tell you that an employer with limited resources will have to cut gross yearly salaries to account for mandatory vacation. The cut is likely to be more than just the wages for five days’ work, however, when you account for scheduling and training expenses in a small business, where every employee plays an important role and job overlap is minimal. This policy will thus directly hurt the business and benefit nobody, while creating a breadth of negative externalities - including for the government since a business that earns less pays fewer taxes.
clipped from www.politico.com
Rep. Alan Grayson was standing in the middle of Disney World when it hit him: What Americans really need is a week of paid vacation.
So on Thursday, the Florida Democrat will introduce the Paid Vacation Bill.
The idea: More vacation will stimulate the economy through fewer sick days, better productivity and happier employees.
So far, no group has come out in opposition of the bill. Nor has anyone announced opposition to roller coaster rides, cookouts on the beach or salt-water taffy on the boardwalk.
“There’s a reason why Disney World is the happiest place on Earth: The people who go there are on vacation,” said Grayson, a freshman who counts Orlando as part of his home district. “Honestly, as much as I appreciate this job and as much as I enjoy it, the best days of my life are and always have been the days I’m on vacation.”
France currently requires employers to provide 30 days of paid leave.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Didn't see that one coming!

No, but seriously, like I said when this first broke wind - good luck getting capital from any sane investor without putting a gun to their head (an option I'm sure Rahmbo put on the table).
This, combined with the downright moronic mandated CAFE standards (which will at best lower temperatures by 0.0078 degrees ... in 2100) ensure the destruction of American automakers.
If conspiracy theorists thought Bush was owned by Haliburton, how come nobody is saying that Obama's pockets are lined by Toyota?
On the upside, however, once the government runs out of money (or prints so much of it that the dollar is worthless), the unions will have nobody to turn to for funding their fundamentally inefficient and unsustainable business practices and will become extinct. Too bad they're taking the entire country down with them.
clipped from www.bloomberg.com
Pacific Investment Management Co., Barclays Capital and Fridson Investment Advisors have joined Schultze Asset Management LLC in saying lenders may be unwilling to back unionized companies
“Anything that involves a large number of jobs or affects a large number of people, you can expect to see a Chrysler redux,” Jerry del Missier, president of Barclays Capital, said in an interview from his New York office. “One of the consequences here is the so-called speculators, people who provide financing, will think twice about getting involved.”
Unions spent $52 million to help elect Obama, which includes $5 million from the United Auto Workers, according to OpenSecrets.org

“People are starting to think ‘This is a very activist administration, even more than we counted on,’” said Martin Fridson, CEO of money manager Fridson Investment Advisors in New York. “If it comes down to the interest of creditors or labor unions, the administration is going to override what you thought you could do.”

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Godfather Paulson made banks an offer they couldn't refuse

This is nothing new to anyone, especially considering what we already knew about the BofA/ML prearranged marriage, but now there's proof that Paulson was a government gangster.
clipped from www.bloomberg.com
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said nine U.S. banks would have to accept $125 billion in government investments or be forced to by regulators.
“If a capital infusion is not appealing, you should be aware that your regulator will require it in any circumstance”
“Your nine firms represent a significant part of our financial system. Therefore, in our view, you must be central to any solution,” the memo said.
Three and a half hours after the meeting was scheduled to begin, Paulson had obtained the bankers’ signatures on half-page forms along with the handwritten amount of the federal government’s investment, according to the documents. He announced the actions publicly the next day.

“Most Americans are going to be uncomfortable with the government forcing the banks into this arrangement,” said Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, a nonprofit research group in Washington that obtained the documents under a Freedom of Information Act request. “This is, in many ways, thuggery.”