Wednesday, September 30, 2009

An MBA in Hustling

Given the amoral utilitarianism of Russia's oligarchs it's not surprising that they would be willing and able craft what may very well become one of the only business schools that's more than a circle jerk rest stop for burned-out bankers and bored corporate types seeking to switch careers.
Learning how to deal with the prevalent issues of politics, bureaucracy and corruption is applicable not just to emerging markets, but to the developed world as well. Wherever there are puppet politicians there are puppeteers pulling the strings.
Furthermore, anyone who has worked for a large corporation understands the importance of successfully navigating office politics and greasing bureaucracy's palm to free oneself from its suffocating grasp.
A handful of top Russian business figures have created an MBA program that tackles the issues they faced themselves: bribery, relentless bureaucracy, imperfect laws.
Skolkovo includes classroom courses in management theory, but invites dozens of guest speakers [and] might even invite an organized crime boss to talk about the challenges of management.

Skolkovo faculty members say they avoid moral judgments, and offer no ready-made strategies for handling corruption and predatory practices.

Among the patrons are some of the Russian business world's biggest names: Abramovich, the billionaire investor and owner of the Chelsea football team, donated 26 hectares (64 acres) of choice land outside Moscow for the construction of the gleaming $250 million campus, which has its own helipad.
Skolkovo's training doesn't come cheap. Fees for a full-time MBA including accommodation, flights to India, China and the U.S. come to euro50,000 ($74,000).

Monday, September 28, 2009

A Darling Buffoon

Alistair Darling must have slept through his maths classes in elementary school. If you want to get tax revenue from the rich, but also command firms to curb bonus payments then where are you going to get that extra money from?
At least he is being completely "Frank" about his socialist, Robbin' Hood, ideals. Maybe Labour should just drop the pretense and rename themselves the Pathetic Proletariat Party.
clipped from www.bloomberg.com
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, targeting what he calls “greed and recklessness” in Britain’s financial system, asked banks to curtail bonuses and said the rich will pay more in tax.
“It is right that those who earn the most should shoulder the biggest burden.”
“We will introduce legislation to end the reckless culture that puts short-term profits over long term success. It will mean an end to automatic bank bonuses year after year.”
Darling said he has raised tax rates and eliminated relief for pension contributions for the rich.
This week, Darling will [ask bank heads of remuneration] that they reduce bonus payments at the ahead of a change in the law aimed at formalizing curbs on pay.
“The government’s implicit presentation of excessive remuneration as the cause of the crisis, and the banking bill as a silver bullet that will kill off financial excesses, is singularly unconvincing,” said Simon Morris, a partner at law firm CMS Cameron McKenna.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Robertson puts it in real simple terms for the fools on the Hill

...but somehow I doubt even these clear and irrefutable facts from one of the brightest minds in finance will make them listen.
When all you're thinking about is reelection, or your immediate problems - in the case of dimwitted constituents, it's hard to see past to the burgeoning debt load that will put a vice grip on future generations. At least we'll all be green - cars will be too expensive and dollars will be crowding out all other colors in landfills.
clipped from www.cnbc.com
The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC.
Julian Robertson
"It's almost Armageddon ... if the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent.
It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.”
“The other thing is, they're buying almost exclusively short-term debt. And that's what we are offering, because we can't sell the long-term debt. And you know, the history has been that people who borrow short term really get burned.”
"The U.S. has to quit spending, cut back, start saving, and scale backward," Robertson said. “I really do think the recession is at least temporarily over. But we haven't addressed so many of our problems and we are borrowing so much money that we can't possibly pay it back, unless the Chinese and Japanese buy our bonds.”

Thursday, September 17, 2009

More Quants shifting to Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance, which once was a footnote in most advanced economics textbooks is now coming to the forefront of financial engineering as quants realize that models must account for the facts that market participants - when pushed beyond their comfort zone - will rarely act efficiently.
As followers of this blog will know I never bought into the EMH, and so have a perennial interest in modeling behavior in the markets. Exploiting inefficiencies is the true path to arbitrage profits.
Of course if quant models start trading against what they perceive as erratic human behavior it's inevitable that they themselves will act erratic at times. It's a Catch-22 of trying to predict the unpredictable.
The added volatility this brings should make things a lot more interesting in the coming years. It will also make whoever can decipher the decision pathways of both the black boxes and gray ones a whole lot of money.
clipped from www.nytimes.com
IN the aftermath of the great meltdown of 2008, Wall Street’s quants have been cast as the financial engineers of profit-driven innovation run amok.
The risk models proved myopic, they say, because they were too simple-minded. They focused mainly on figures like the expected returns and the default risk of financial instruments. What they didn’t sufficiently take into account was human behavior, specifically the potential for widespread panic.
“When trust in counterparties is lost, and markets freeze up so there are no prices,” said Stephen Figlewski, a professor of finance at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
The drive to measure, model and perhaps even predict waves of group behavior is an emerging field of research.

“You don’t need a model of human psychology to see that there was a danger of impending disaster,” Mr. Farmer observed. “But economists have failed to make models that accurately model such phenomena and adequately address their couplings.”


I highly recommend reading the rest of the article for a look at two very different approaches to modeling investor behavior.