More Quants shifting to Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance, which once was a footnote in most advanced economics textbooks is now coming to the forefront of financial engineering as quants realize that models must account for the facts that market participants - when pushed beyond their comfort zone - will rarely act efficiently.
As followers of this blog will know I never bought into the EMH, and so have a perennial interest in modeling behavior in the markets. Exploiting inefficiencies is the true path to arbitrage profits.
Of course if quant models start trading against what they perceive as erratic human behavior it's inevitable that they themselves will act erratic at times. It's a Catch-22 of trying to predict the unpredictable.
The added volatility this brings should make things a lot more interesting in the coming years. It will also make whoever can decipher the decision pathways of both the black boxes and gray ones a whole lot of money.

clipped from www.nytimes.com IN the aftermath of the great meltdown of 2008, Wall Street’s quants have been cast as the financial engineers of profit-driven innovation run amok. The risk models proved myopic, they say, because they were too simple-minded. They focused mainly on figures like the expected returns and the default risk of financial instruments. What they didn’t sufficiently take into account was human behavior, specifically the potential for widespread panic. “When trust in counterparties is lost, and markets freeze up so there are no prices,” said Stephen Figlewski, a professor of finance at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business. The drive to measure, model and perhaps even predict waves of group behavior is an emerging field of research. “You don’t need a model of human psychology to see that there was a danger of impending disaster,” Mr. Farmer observed. “But economists have failed to make models that accurately model such phenomena and adequately address their couplings.”

I highly recommend reading the rest of the article for a look at two very different approaches to modeling investor behavior.