Robertson puts it in real simple terms for the fools on the Hill

...but somehow I doubt even these clear and irrefutable facts from one of the brightest minds in finance will make them listen.
When all you're thinking about is reelection, or your immediate problems - in the case of dimwitted constituents, it's hard to see past to the burgeoning debt load that will put a vice grip on future generations. At least we'll all be green - cars will be too expensive and dollars will be crowding out all other colors in landfills.

clipped from www.cnbc.com The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC. "It's almost Armageddon ... if the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent. It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.” “The other thing is, they're buying almost exclusively short-term debt. And that's what we are offering, because we can't sell the long-term debt. And you know, the history has been that people who borrow short term really get burned.” "The U.S. has to quit spending, cut back, start saving, and scale backward," Robertson said. “I really do think the recession is at least temporarily over. But we haven't addressed so many of our problems and we are borrowing so much money that we can't possibly pay it back, unless the Chinese and Japanese buy our bonds.”

More Quants shifting to Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance, which once was a footnote in most advanced economics textbooks is now coming to the forefront of financial engineering as quants realize that models must account for the facts that market participants - when pushed beyond their comfort zone - will rarely act efficiently.
As followers of this blog will know I never bought into the EMH, and so have a perennial interest in modeling behavior in the markets. Exploiting inefficiencies is the true path to arbitrage profits.
Of course if quant models start trading against what they perceive as erratic human behavior it's inevitable that they themselves will act erratic at times. It's a Catch-22 of trying to predict the unpredictable.
The added volatility this brings should make things a lot more interesting in the coming years. It will also make whoever can decipher the decision pathways of both the black boxes and gray ones a whole lot of money.

clipped from www.nytimes.com IN the aftermath of the great meltdown of 2008, Wall Street’s quants have been cast as the financial engineers of profit-driven innovation run amok. The risk models proved myopic, they say, because they were too simple-minded. They focused mainly on figures like the expected returns and the default risk of financial instruments. What they didn’t sufficiently take into account was human behavior, specifically the potential for widespread panic. “When trust in counterparties is lost, and markets freeze up so there are no prices,” said Stephen Figlewski, a professor of finance at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business. The drive to measure, model and perhaps even predict waves of group behavior is an emerging field of research. “You don’t need a model of human psychology to see that there was a danger of impending disaster,” Mr. Farmer observed. “But economists have failed to make models that accurately model such phenomena and adequately address their couplings.”

I highly recommend reading the rest of the article for a look at two very different approaches to modeling investor behavior.

CFTC Helping Green America with $10 Gas

I'm starting to see the brilliant foresight of the master plan of our current Administration's social engineering program. Eroding liquidity in the energy markets that are easily accessible to hedgers (gas pump operators, airlines, utilities, etc.) who actively need big banks & other investors (speculators) to take the other side of their trades will certainly cause gas prices to spike at the pump, make air travel & shipping the luxury it once was, and ensure that the President is the only one who can keep his office tropically warm in the winter.
Since companies won't be able to put floors on the price of gasoline, natural gas and other commodities their costs will be at the mercy of a very volatile supply and demand and they will have to adjust their prices up to ensure they can still make a profit in any given quarter. That is, until they're nationalized because they can't sustain independent operations anymore and are too big to failll into the wrong hands (like those of a successful foreign company that might fire some US union workers).
This policy will at once force people into buying hybrids and increase the cost of imports (which makes Obama's protectionist allies happy). Of course it would be extremely unpopular to achieve these goals through gas taxes and import tariffs. Making this appear to be a crusade against evil market manipulators makes it far easier to achieve the same results with popular support.
Of course with taxes and tariffs at least the government would make some money to pay back the exponentially expanding debt load, but that's the problem of another generation. At least the Earth they'll inherit will be green, that's good since all their money will be going to interest payments they'll have to learn how to live off the land.

clipped from online.wsj.com CFTC Will Pin '08 Price Surge on Speculators, in a Reversal From Bush Findings. Under Chairman Gary Gensler, appointed by President Barack Obama, the CFTC is departing from the more hands-off approach it took under its previous head, a George W. Bush appointee. During his confirmation process earlier this year, Mr. Gensler said he believed speculation was partly behind the surge in commodity prices. In the U.S., the CFTC begins public hearings Tuesday to determine whether to limit speculative investments in commodities. Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, has called on the CFTC to curb "oil speculators looking for a quick buck at the expense of American consumers." [CME Head] Craig Donohue, said: "We are deeply concerned that inappropriate regulation of these markets will cause market participants to move to dark pools and other unregulated markets, causing irrevocable harm to the entire U.S. economy." Last year, CFTC Chief Economist Jeffrey Harris told a House Agriculture subcommittee: "The economic data shows that overall commodity price levels, including agriculture commodity and energy futures prices, are being driven by powerful fundamental economic forces and the laws of supply and demand." Mr. Harris didn't return a call to comment. The acting CFTC chairman at the time, Bush-appointee Walter Lukken, told the House Agriculture committee that CFTC's economists "did not find direct evidence that speculation was driving up prices." Mr. Lukken, now an executive at the New York Stock Exchange, declined to comment. U.K.'s Financial Services Authority has found no evidence that speculators are behind big oil-price swings. The FSA doesn't believe that limiting the size of trading positions would be "beneficial" for the market.

Soros confuses CDS for Puts

The apparently attrocious payout scheme of a CDS that Soros illustrates is remarkably similar to (as in exactly the same as) that of a vanilla Put option. Should those be outlawed as well?
There is no doubt option volume has a "reflexive" effect on the underlying stocks as well. The reason for this, however (and Soros even points this out himself), is because dumb money eventually follows smart money and smart money likes smart instruments (derivatives) that they can tailor precisely to their views on any particular aspect of a firm. The fact that professionals are expressing their views (in CDS' case on "adverse developments" affecting an issuers' credit rating) only leads to greater market efficiency and quicker fair price discovery.
Companies don't fail because evil speculators shorted/wrote puts on their stock or bought protection on their bonds. They fail because their management fucked up.

clipped from www.guardian.co.uk "CDS are instruments of destruction which ought to be outlawed," Soros told a meeting of the Institute of International Finance. Going short on bonds by purchasing a CDS contract carried limited risk but almost unlimited profit potential. By contrast, selling CDSs offered limited profit and practically unlimited risk, Soros said. Soros said: "People buy a CDS not because they expect an eventual default but because they expect them to appreciate in response to adverse developments." "It's like buying life insurance on someone else's life and owning a license to kill," he concluded. He said derivatives should be standardised and saw no case for custom-made derivatives, which he said only increased the profit margins of the financiers who tailored them. Soros' criticism echoes fellow investor Warren Buffet's description of derivatives in 2003 as "financial weapons of mass destruction".

Expect the USD IRS market to explode...

...but don't play taps for the USD just yet.
First of all, the CCB doesn't speak for China in any official capacity (like the PBC does), and secondly Shuqing's intent in these remarks is to strengthen the Yuan's global authority, rather than hedge against US' looming inflation risk. Of course Xiaochuan and Medvedev are arguing precisely this point - the fundamental weakness and instability of America's currency due to the country's tremendous leverage. That is why they want another currency, or most likely a basket like SDR, to replace the USD. All signs point to this eventually happening, but the Dollar's demise will be a painful, political, and most importantly lengthy process (of course no political process is ever efficient, so that's a moot point).

That being said,the USD is going to keep depreciating, with a few bounces in between, as America has little alternative to printing more greenbacks. Well you know, aside from fiscal responsibility anchoring free-market capitalism.

clipped from www.telegraph.co.uk The head of China's second-largest bank has said the United States government should start issuing bonds in yuan, rather than dollars, in the latest indication of the increasing importance of the Chinese currency. Guo Shuqing, the chairman of state-controlled China Construction Bank (CCB), also said he is exploring the possibility of issuing loans to trading companies in yuan, allowing Chinese and foreign companies to settle their bills in yuan rather than in dollars. Mr Guo said the issuing of yuan bonds in Hong Kong and Shanghai would help to develop the debt markets in China and promote the yuan as a major international currency. Two months ago, before the G20 meeting in London, Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, published a personal paper proposing to replace the dollar as the international reserve currency. His call came after Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, asked the US to guarantee the safety of China's huge pile of US debt.

Welcome to the bandwagon, Bill.

Bil Gross believes that the US will lose its AAA rating within 3-4 years, something I said when the details of TARP first emerged. Of course the credit rating agencies will be a bit scared to eradicate the concept of "risk free" as we know it, but like Mr. PIMCO said - the downgrade will be priced in regardless of what the ratings are on paper.
Jay-Z and Giselle were too quick to switch to Euros in 2007 (unless they cashed out between April and July of 2008), but now might be a good time to consider what currency, if any, you want to hold in your bank account. Barrels of oil and gold bars might not fit in a wallet, but they won't evaporate either.
Note: While I think Oil's run-up is fully merited, I would take some profit now and leave it on the sidelines until an inevitable dip that leads to another buying opportunity. The curve is still contango, but a lot less steep.

clipped from ftalphaville.ft.com Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the US was “going the way of the UK” and will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating - a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure, reports Reuters. The US will face a downgrade in “at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognise the problems before the rating services — just like it did today,” said Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pimco and manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund, which has $154bn in assets. clipped from www.usnews.com

The "person" who spread the AIG loan rumor was Bernanke

Perhaps I didn't give Helicopter Ben enough credit. He's a crafty little bearded fella. Right after the markets dropped as the Fed unanimously decided to hold rates steady a rumor came out on the Bloomberg about the Fed extending a loan to AIG after all causing everything to return to normal as if the non-cut never happened.

BLOOMBERG TEXT:
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is considering
extending a ``loan package'' to American International Group
Inc., the insurer facing a cash shortage, according to a person
familiar with the negotiations.
The stance by federal regulators is a reversal from a
position they held as late as last night, and people with
knowledge of the talks are ``cautiously optimistic,'' said the
person, who declined to be identified because negotiations are
confidential.
The person gave no timetable for reaching an agreement or
estimate on how much money New York-based AIG would need. New
York Fed spokesman Andrew Williams declined to comment.

Quick Predictions: WM to be bought by WFC and other probabilities

Here's what I'm thinking:
WM: Will either go bankrupt (CDS has been trading as if it already is since last week) or get wrapped up on the cheap. I would say the latter is still slightly more likely, and I am calling out WFC as the most likely suitor in a deeply discounted all-stock deal. It's the only large regional that has fared well throughout this turmoil, and they could use WM's retail and small-biz base.
AIG: The "too big to fail" arguement doesn't float anymore with the taxpayers, and it's finally getting through to Washington. You can't open the floodgates and bail out every single large firm. Furthermore, AIG is in a position to sever a limb (their toxic Financial Services unit) to save their life, and they should do precisely that. All the financial executives have ruined themselves and their employees through the hubris of trying to remain an indepent going concern against all odds. Two words for those who are left standing: Stop Loss.
Fed Move: The market is pricing in a 25bps cut, and that's what I believe will happen. I would prefer the Fed holds tight, giving the markets the financial equivalent of a suppository, but I doubt Bernanke has the guts to bear the fallout. A 50bps cut, however, will deplete ammo that the Fed will very likely need should bigger problems surface. And they certainly will.

Why I'm short equity right now...

Tomorrow we'll see if Bernanke has any balls.
If he admits that the 75bps emergency cut was too extreme, given that the MLK market volatility resulted in a big part from SocGen's seppuku as they surrendered to losses in a way only the French could (by immediately liquidating all their massive "fraudulent" positions and flooding the market instead of doing it gradually like any normal trading house would), he will cut rates 25bps. Of course this is still 100bps for the month, which sets us up nicely for stagflation in the near future, and 50bps more than the market originally estimated for January.
Nevertheless, even after every last financier, from BSD to Broker, had their chance to laugh at SocGen's Krevieling stupidity the market is still demanding a 50bps cut. Thus if Helicopter Ben continues playing limbo to the market's benchmark nothing will change (maybe a 2-3% intraday spike at most), but if he shows some backbone and cuts 25 the markets will tumble.
That's why I'm short SPH8 with an ATM straddle to hedge the vol (and compound profit) . Tomorrow should be fun.

Update: So ball less Bernanke cuts 50bps. Like I said - short intraday spike to unwind the call from the straddle and keep the put for free. All in all, nothing lost (except the credibility of the Fed).

Update 2: So even a fiddy ain't enough for the markets, as SPX finished down a percent. Good news for me though - I sold all three parts (call, put, future) in the money before market close. This turned out to be a pretty great trade, after all.

Things aren't looking good...

If all the massive financials' writedowns weren't enough we saw the SPX go under its 200-day MACD. I think tomorrow could be really bad, and don't think a good unemployment number is going to save you (actually the only thing that could is some big boys covering shorts or going long if their trigger was the 200 MACD). Get out of FXI, short the SPDRS (and the dollar) and hold on to your golden balls.

Goldman Sachs Is Perfect...

...everyone else is just cramping their style:

clipped from www.bloomberg.com Goldman Sachs Group Inc. blamed its $3 billion in hedge-fund losses this month on too many quantitative managers making the same trades. "Successful quant managers will have to rely more on unique factors, while we have developed a number of these factors over the last several years, in hindsight we did not put sufficient weight on these relative to more popular quant factors." {Hate to break this to ya, but this statement means your model was not unique as a whole and furthermore that you didn't give these "unique" factors enough weight to actually trade based on them - i.e. the factors are crap used for marketing materials, and you have the same damn model as every other quant fund.} Goldman's quantitative funds use six major investment ``themes'' that it identified as momentum, earnings quality, valuation, profitability, analyst sentiment and management impact. All suffered ``extreme negative returns'' from July 30 through Aug. 10. {Gee whiz these sure would sound unique...if it was 1960s when Vinnys roamed the floor of the NYSE like brightly colored dinosaurs.} Last week, ``quantitative portfolios fell (and rose) by unprecedented amounts -- far more than at any time in the history of our data,'' according to the Goldman report. {The only thing that rose was the P&L at Goldman's prop desk who found out about the liquidations early and front ran the trades, notes an inside source.} The world's most profitable securities firm and second-largest hedge-fund manager lost $1.4 billion, or 28 percent, in its Global Equity Opportunities fund this month while the flagship Global Alpha, fell 27 percent year to date. {Fortunately, unlike Smelly Bear Stearns Goldman's got plenty of money in the Sachs to keep these funds afloat - if they were to liquidate their reputation would take a hit and cause serious long term damage to the firm. Bear, on the other hand, has no reputation to speak of and is thus scrappily taking all of their investor's money so they can keep themselves afloat long enough to get CEO Jimmy Cayne's golf score down to non-laughable levels.}

Three Horsemen of the Crapocalypse

I know it's been a while since I posted. Some of you were wondering if I got killed in the avalanche that started rolling with subprime and got bigger as it piled into credit, then equities and then the global macro markets. The Austrians were onto something, that's for sure. Rest assured, however, that I am alive and well - a tsunami of volatility can be a beautiful thing if you know how to surf it. Of course with so much free money being stuffed into the markets by funds liquidating their assets for pennies on the dollar (think 10 Amaranths and I'm John Arnold with a bigass fishing net) there has been no time left to pen witty banter on a blog. I got post ideas, though and will get to them when I have time. Meanwhile check out these three intraday charts that spell either doom, boom or opportunity depending on your positions:

VIX:
and SPX:
Treasuries (TYU7 Future):JPY
This poor otter was caught on the tracks of the Vega train today:

Don't worry little buddy, the markets will rebound ...just not this week. Once S&P breaks the 1400 floor more stop losses will get triggered (leading to a further Treasury and Yen rally as hedges and carry trades are unwound). More bodies of failed PMs will surface (but we all know Portfolio Managers never die - they just go to hell and regroup [unless the FERC gets all pesty]).