Quick Predictions: WM to be bought by WFC and other probabilities

Here's what I'm thinking:
WM: Will either go bankrupt (CDS has been trading as if it already is since last week) or get wrapped up on the cheap. I would say the latter is still slightly more likely, and I am calling out WFC as the most likely suitor in a deeply discounted all-stock deal. It's the only large regional that has fared well throughout this turmoil, and they could use WM's retail and small-biz base.
AIG: The "too big to fail" arguement doesn't float anymore with the taxpayers, and it's finally getting through to Washington. You can't open the floodgates and bail out every single large firm. Furthermore, AIG is in a position to sever a limb (their toxic Financial Services unit) to save their life, and they should do precisely that. All the financial executives have ruined themselves and their employees through the hubris of trying to remain an indepent going concern against all odds. Two words for those who are left standing: Stop Loss.
Fed Move: The market is pricing in a 25bps cut, and that's what I believe will happen. I would prefer the Fed holds tight, giving the markets the financial equivalent of a suppository, but I doubt Bernanke has the guts to bear the fallout. A 50bps cut, however, will deplete ammo that the Fed will very likely need should bigger problems surface. And they certainly will.