Friday, June 12, 2009

Soros confuses CDS for Puts

The apparently attrocious payout scheme of a CDS that Soros illustrates is remarkably similar to (as in exactly the same as) that of a vanilla Put option. Should those be outlawed as well?
There is no doubt option volume has a "reflexive" effect on the underlying stocks as well. The reason for this, however (and Soros even points this out himself), is because dumb money eventually follows smart money and smart money likes smart instruments (derivatives) that they can tailor precisely to their views on any particular aspect of a firm. The fact that professionals are expressing their views (in CDS' case on "adverse developments" affecting an issuers' credit rating) only leads to greater market efficiency and quicker fair price discovery.
Companies don't fail because evil speculators shorted/wrote puts on their stock or bought protection on their bonds. They fail because their management fucked up.
clipped from www.guardian.co.uk
"CDS are instruments of destruction which ought to be outlawed," Soros told a meeting of the Institute of International Finance.
Going short on bonds by purchasing a CDS contract carried limited risk but almost unlimited profit potential. By contrast, selling CDSs offered limited profit and practically unlimited risk, Soros said.
Soros said: "People buy a CDS not because they expect an eventual default but because they expect them to appreciate in response to adverse developments."
"It's like buying life insurance on someone else's life and owning a license to kill," he concluded.
He said derivatives should be standardised and saw no case for custom-made derivatives, which he said only increased the profit margins of the financiers who tailored them.
Soros' criticism echoes fellow investor Warren Buffet's description of derivatives in 2003 as "financial weapons of mass destruction".

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Soros gains my manipulating the markets, not because he knows how to invest.
The problem with derivatives is that many of them were not secured by bonds.
Let's get into this securitization business. Every financial instrument is securitized by a collateral of some sort because every financial instrument is a loan.
For example, a mortgage is secured by a house. If the borrower can't pay their mortgage, the banks foreclose on them.
A stock is secured by ownership of a company. If the company can't afford to pay the investor back, they liquidate a part of their company to come up with the money.
Derivatives are really a financial instrument that is backed by another financial instrument.
ie.
Options are secured by Stocks.
Futures are secured by commodities.
Subprime derivatives are secured by bonds.

When that financial instrument is not secured, or at best an arbitrary agreement of money transfers.

The subprime scandal happened when derivative dealers "exposed themselves" and sold subprime derivatives without securing them with bonds.

The derivative dealers/lending institutions sold subprimes to investors to obtain financial inventory to make ARM loans to investors.

When the ARM borrowers couldn't make their payments, the derivative dealers were supposed to liquidate that bond so they had something to pay their investors back.

Well, since they didn't secure it with a bond- they didn't have anything to liquidate when ARM borrowers kept foreclosing on loans and taxpayers were forced by politicians to bail them out.

If we didn't bail them out, the investors would've lost their investment due to fraud-by the derivative dealer.

This fraud happened on a massive scale and has been going on for years.

CDS was supposed to be protection.

So when you apply that to Soros' statement, I agree. This guy either got lost in translation, he's lying or he has no idea what he's talking about.

The fact that Soros "predicted it" means he was aware of this fraud. He's not going to tell us the truth-he's only going to tell us what he wants us to know.

Anonymous said...

Also, the issue is that the people complained to the CFTC about the sale of counterfeit derivatives and the CFTC didn't respond. The SEC can do nothing about it because Deregulation removed authority of the derivative/commodity markets from the SEC.

This was supposed to be our protection and it failed.

Soros gained on Halliburton because he had the inside information on when Media Matters would stop rallying against them.

He's got shares in Ford (notice Toyota's bad PR?). He's got shares in Petrobias when these environmentalists are boycotting domestic drilling.

i question that he even has a "brilliant" arbitrage strategy.