Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Speculator Scapegoats

So both sides of the political fence are suddenly blaming “speculators” for the move in oil prices. Of course I know why (big oil, bigger lobby vs. a vague and easily vilified group).

But how does this make any sense to someone with half a brain (i.e. 3% of the electorate):

  1. How do you define speculators?
    1. If Big Oil wasn’t speculating Grandma Millie would have her lights on and high-earning big oil traders wouldn’t have a job. I can create a black box model that will look at real-time S&D and put in the equilibrium trades in real time. Yet all big oil companies pay the most to their traders …who are only there to hedge?
    2. All the biggest energy funds & prop desks in the world couldn’t put enough volume through to drive the price up that much compared to the volume that the “hedgers” do. Furthermore, how many “speculative” funds do outright directional bets instead of spreads?
    3. The only thing close to a “legit” hedger is an airline/trucker type business if all they do is buy a bunch of CL12s and chillax.
  2. Isn’t this locking up the free market?
    1. Speculators shouldn’t have any inside information (unlike the big oil “hedgers” who by definition do), so aren’t they just providing “efficiency” to the market? Even my nemesis, Fama, would agree with me here. In fact, without speculators providing liquidity the true hedgers would be fucked and the market would be at the mercy of the faux hedgers.
    2. Furthermore, arbitrary regulation of speculators goes against the very principles of capitalism. To stop someone from buying a good at the current price in the market just because you think they’re paying too much is so pinko it could be a gay groom’s dress in California. Hey, if they’re all wrong then the commodity bubble will burst (which I think it will, but not until >$150 oil at least) and magically gas will be $2/gallon again.
Now everything I've outlined above is very basic, so there's a good chance I'm missing something. If so, by all means make me a fool and point it out. Otherwise it looks like we're in for Big Government (just not for those who need the regulating) no matter who wins in November.

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