Tuesday, October 02, 2007

No Shit, eBay!

I recall trying to explain to a Lazard monkey during my interview there why this deal was going to kill eBay over 2 years ago. Fortunately for me the dumb fuck insisted that according to his model this deal would pay out in 5 years, and I didn't get my job because I told him he was wrong. Good thing - Lazard kills its analysts. Literally (I was going to link to the article about the guy who died @ Lazard pulling a week of all-nighters but couldn't find it). Incidentally, since Morgan and Merrill were the bankers why did he build a valuation? Guess Lazard didn't make the cut on that one. Whoops.

The best part of this article however is the nugget (like the one you find in the toilet after plowing through a porterhouse) from Aaron Kessler of "we pretend we're not middle market" bank Piper Jaffray. Yeah, Aaron - Skype should really look at diversifying into search engines. It's an obviously untapped market, and one Skype could capitalize on with all their experience in VoIP. I shouldn't be surprised, though. Any "research analyst" who can pick stocks with any semblance of accuracy is snapped up by buy-side shops and gets paid at least quadruple what they'd make on the sell-side. So if you've been at public sell-side research for longer than 2 years you're a failure at life. I'd tell you to jump out the window, but most banks cleverly place their research analysts on the lower floors.

EBay, the internet auction site, admitted yesterday that it had overpaid hugely for Skype. EBay bought Skype in 2005 for $2.6 billion. Yesterday it warned shareholders that it would have to take an impairment charge of $900 million (£450 million) because it had valued the group too highly two years ago.
Niklas Zennstrom, Skype’s founder, would step down as chief executive of Skype to become nonexecutive chairman. The online auctioneer has cut bonuses due to Mr Zennstrom and others by 60 percent because it was so disappointed by Skype’s performance. It would pay only $530 million in cash to the Skype founders in the only and last payment of its kind.

An eBay spokesman said: “Skype has not performed as well as we would have hoped.
But we still believe Skype to be an extremely valuable asset.”

Aaron Kessler, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, the US investment bank, said: “They haven’t really figured out a way to monetise their clients – they haven’t introduced new services such as search engines.”

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

To add to the ebay sux theme here, they also own www.shopping.com they pay other websites to promote affiliat's products then pay the promoters 1p-10p per sale when they receive £6-£500 per sale. They are all about the money, they have changed sooo much since they started up. you should read their book "the perfect store". More like "A quick and easy way to make a load of money, with no customer care". So If your looking for an alternative to ebay, ItchyPig limited run its own auction site www.itchypig.co.uk. Im a co-director, we have just been backed by Northampton university. Theres no final value fees and no listing fees. we make all our money from selling advertising space on the site (but no spyware). Check out the website www.itchypig.co.uk. Cheers for reading. Frank